Wall Street 2

I've finally watched Wall Street 2. It is better than I thought, although the love story was clearly distracting to the movie plot. Thankfully it was only a small part of the movie. It is hard to top what was set in Wall Street, so I wasn't expecting watching this one. I was thoroughly pleasant to find the movie this good.
My favorite part is the reenactment of what happened to Bear Stearns when it was desperate in finding a buyer. Of course in reality, JP Morgan's $2 offer was accepted, even though it was raised later on to $10 to appease the angry shareholders who were threatening to launch a lawsuit. I do find it important that JP Morgan raised the offer from $2 to $10. So if there was no competing offer or shareholder uproar, they would've gotten away with $2? Whatever happened to fairvalue? They said it was fair value but they were willing to pay either $2 or $10?
But I digress, I think Oliver Stone should've included this little tidbit into the movie. Overall the movie was entertaining. My only beef with the movie is that Jake Moore is a prop. trader, but he spends all of his time pitching investment banking deals, during trading hours. In fact, through out the entire movie, he didn't accomplish a single trade! he even got his broker friend to trade on his personal account for him. what's going on man?
On the internet, someone mentioned that in the movie, all the big shots were staring at Level II quotes. These are basically the order quotes before they were completed. that's tiny small mistake in the movie because in these days where flash trading is all over the place, looking at Level II quotes really dont get you much information anymore. but this is an honest mistake and is easily forgiven. still gets a small laugh tho.

The Perfect Hedge

最近在網路上有看到對於兩個東西的解釋
1) Gold漲是投資人對應通膨的預期
2) 10年 treasury bill yield跌到了2.7%, 大批買入是為了應付對通縮的預期. 一旦通縮, 2.7%反而會是很好的投資.

兩者矛盾.
最可能的原因, 恐怕是gold其實並不是大家所想像的通膨避險, 而是對任何的不確定性的避險, 不管是通膨還是通縮.
David Einhorn曾說當美國政策壞的時候, gold就會漲, 美國政策好的時候, gold就會跌. 當美國預計未來將會有盈餘的時候, 也就是gold跌的時候.